Monthly Market Report — March 2026

Each month I publish a market analysis combining real-time economic data with its direct impact on Florida's private real estate lending market. This is the March 2026 report.

The Fed: tactical pause after three cuts

The Federal Reserve held rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range at its January 2026 meeting, following three consecutive cuts in 2025 (June, September, and December) that brought rates down from 4.50% to the current level.

The March 17-18 meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — the dot plot showing FOMC members' expectations. Markets are watching whether the SEP confirms 2 additional cuts for 2026, as projected in December.

Key rates this month:

• Fed Funds Rate: 3.50%–3.75%
• Treasury 10Y: ~4.26%
• 30Y Mortgage: around 6.5%
• Treasury 2Y/5Y/30Y forming a normal curve

Inflation: the right trend

Inflation data continues to show gradual progress toward the Fed's 2% target:

• Core PCE (the Fed's preferred metric) continues to decline but remains above target
• Headline CPI shows year-over-year moderation
• The Fed remains "data dependent" — every inflation print directly influences rate cut expectations

For private lending investors, easing inflation is positive: it reduces pressure on long-term rates and maintains the yield spread attractiveness.

Real estate market: solid fundamentals in Florida

The housing market shows mixed signals nationally:

• Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales reflect the impact of elevated mortgage rates
• The Case-Shiller index continues to show appreciation, albeit at more moderate rates
• Florida maintains strong fundamentals: net positive migration, investment demand, and construction activity

For private lending, Florida's market remains favorable: demand for fix-and-flip, bridge loan, and construction financing stays robust.

Private Lending: the current landscape

The estimated yield for private lending in Florida remains around 9% annually, with a significant spread over alternatives:

| Instrument | Yield | |---|---| | Private Lending (Florida) | ~9.0% | | S&P 500 (10Y CAGR) | ~11.2% | | Treasury 10Y | ~4.26% | | HYSA | ~4.0% | | CD 12 Months | ~3.48% |

The advantage of private lending isn't just the yield: it's the combination of predictable monthly cash flow + tangible collateral (first lien mortgage) + short terms (~12 months).

Outlook for April

What to watch:

1. March 17-18 FOMC decision — Hold or cut? The SEP will provide clear signals about the trajectory for the rest of 2026
2. Inflation data — February/March CPI and PCE will confirm whether the downward trend holds
3. Real estate activity — Sales and construction permits in Florida as an indicator of financing demand
4. Credit spreads — High Yield and CMBS spreads as a gauge of market risk appetite

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For live updated data, visit the Monthly Report page where indicators are automatically updated with Federal Reserve (FRED) data.

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This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past returns do not guarantee future results.