Monthly Market Report

Private lending market analysis in Florida with real-time economic data

Live data

Market Report

June 2026

Monthly analysis of economic indicators and their impact on the private real estate lending market in Florida.

Last updated: June 23, 2026 at 12:08 AM

Executive Summary

Fed Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Last decision: unknown

4.33%JunJulAug4.22%Sep4.09%Oct3.88%Nov3.72%Dec3.64%JanFebMarApr3.63%May
Next release: Sep 15 (FOMC · 84 days)

Inflation

CPI 4.2% YoY

Core PCE: 3.3% (referencia Fed)

2.68%Jun2.74%Jul2.94%Aug3.02%Sep2.70%Nov2.65%Dec2.39%Jan2.43%Feb3.29%Mar3.78%Apr4.17%May
Next release: Jul 14 (BLS CPI · 21 days)

Housing

Hipoteca 30Y: 6.47%

Next release: Jun 25 (Freddie Mac PMMS · 2 days)

Private Lending

9.0% estimated annual

vs alternatives: CD 3.4% | Treasury 4.5%

Interest Rates and the Fed

FOMC Decision

unknown
Last meeting: Jun 16, 2026Fed Funds: 3.50%–3.75%
Next meeting:Sep 15, 2026with SEP(84 days)
Fed Funds RateMay 1, 2026
3.63%-0.01MoM
Treasury 2YJun 18, 2026
4.19%-0.01MoM
Treasury 5YJun 18, 2026
4.23%-0.04MoM
Treasury 10YJun 18, 2026
4.46%-0.03MoM
Treasury 30YJun 18, 2026
4.90%-0.03MoM
30Y MortgageJun 18, 2026
6.47%-0.05MoM

Yield Curve (Treasuries)

4.08%4.39%4.70%5.01%4.19%2Y4.23%5Y4.46%10Y4.90%30Y

Inflation and Employment

Key indicators the Fed monitors for monetary policy decisions.

CPI (YoY)May 1, 2026
4.17%+0.39MoM
Core CPI (YoY)May 1, 2026
2.82%+0.08MoM
PCE (YoY)Apr 1, 2026
3.77%+0.24MoM
Core PCE (YoY)Apr 1, 2026
3.29%+0.05MoM

Employment

Unemployment RateMay 1, 2026
4.30%
Nonfarm PayrollsMay 1, 2026
159K+172.00MoM
Jobless ClaimsJun 13, 2026
226K-4000.00MoM
Core PCE vs Fed Target (2%)3.3% vs 2.0%
0%Target 2%5%

Real Estate Market

Housing market activity indicators in the United States.

Housing StartsMay 1, 2026
1K-215.00MoM

New residential construction projects started. An increase signals developer confidence and housing demand.

Existing Home SalesMay 1, 2026
4170K+130000.00MoM

Sales of previously owned homes (in thousands, annualized). Reflects actual market activity and buyer willingness.

Case-Shiller IndexMar 1, 2026
329.9+2.35MoM

Home price index across 20 major U.S. cities. Measures property value appreciation or depreciation over time.

Private Lending: The Landscape

Estimated private loan yield vs investment alternatives.

Estimated Yield (Private Lending)

9.0%

Spread over Treasury 10Y: +4.55%

Returns Comparison

Private lending vs traditional instruments (annual yield)

Private Lending (Florida)9.00%
S&P 500 (10Y CAGR)13.45%
Treasury 10Y4.45%
HYSA (Savings Account)3.25%
CD 12 Months3.42%

Why private lending?

Private real estate lending in Florida offers a significant spread over traditional fixed-income instruments, backed by tangible collateral (first lien mortgage). Unlike the stock market, it generates predictable monthly cash flow and is not subject to daily market volatility.

Outlook for Next Month

Key events and what to watch as a private lending investor.

Next FOMC Meeting

September 15, 2026with SEP

84 days remaining

Consumer Sentiment

U. of Michigan Consumer SentimentApr 1, 2026
49.8-3.50MoM

Commodities (Construction)

Lumber PPIMay 1, 2026
281.0+0.82MoM

What to watch this month

  • Fed rate decision and dot plot evolution
  • Inflation data (CPI and PCE) and their impact on the yield curve
  • Real estate market activity and price trends in Florida
  • Credit spreads as an indicator of market risk appetite

Data retrieved on: June 23, 2026 at 12:08 AM

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data is sourced from official public sources and updated automatically. Dates next to each indicator reflect the latest available observation from each source. Past returns do not guarantee future results.