Monthly Market Report

Private lending market analysis in Florida with real-time economic data

Live data

Market Report

March 2026

Monthly analysis of economic indicators and their impact on the private real estate lending market in Florida.

Last updated: March 23, 2026 at 05:23 PM

Executive Summary

Fed Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Last decision: unchanged

Inflation

CPI 2.4% YoY

Core PCE: 3.1% (referencia Fed)

Housing

Hipoteca 30Y: 6.22%

Private Lending

9.0% estimated annual

vs alternatives: CD 1.5% | Treasury 4.3%

Interest Rates and the Fed

FOMC Decision

Unchanged
Last meeting: Mar 17, 2026Fed Funds: 3.50%–3.75%

Statement: Mantuvo tasas en 3.50%-3.75%. SEP proyectó 1 recorte en 2026 y otro en 2027. Miran disintió a favor de recorte. Inflación PCE revisada a 2.7%.

Next meeting:May 5, 2026(43 days)
Fed Funds RateFeb 1, 2026
3.63%
Treasury 2YMar 19, 2026
3.79%+0.03
Treasury 5YMar 19, 2026
3.88%+0.01
Treasury 10YMar 19, 2026
4.25%-0.01
Treasury 30YMar 19, 2026
4.83%-0.05
30Y MortgageMar 19, 2026
6.22%+0.11

Yield Curve (Treasuries)

3.79%
2Y
3.88%
5Y
4.25%
10Y
4.83%
30Y

Inflation and Employment

Key indicators the Fed monitors for monetary policy decisions.

CPI (YoY)Feb 1, 2026
2.43%+0.04
Core CPI (YoY)Feb 1, 2026
2.47%-0.04
PCE (YoY)Jan 1, 2026
2.83%-0.08
Core PCE (YoY)Jan 1, 2026
3.06%+0.05

Employment

Unemployment RateFeb 1, 2026
4.40%+0.10
Nonfarm PayrollsFeb 1, 2026
158K-92.00
Jobless ClaimsMar 14, 2026
205K-8000.00
Core PCE vs Fed Target (2%)3.1% vs 2.0%
0%Target 2%5%

Real Estate Market

Housing market activity indicators in the United States.

Housing StartsJan 1, 2026
1K+100.00
Existing Home SalesFeb 1, 2026
4090K+70000.00
Case-Shiller IndexDec 1, 2025
327.5-0.90

Private Lending: The Landscape

Estimated private loan yield vs investment alternatives.

Estimated Yield (Private Lending)

9.0%

Spread over Treasury 10Y: +4.74%

Returns Comparison

Private lending vs traditional instruments (annual yield)

Private Lending (Florida)9.00%
S&P 500 (10Y CAGR)13.62%
CAPM (Expected Return)11.46%
Treasury 10Y4.26%
HYSA (Savings Account)3.25%
CD 12 Months1.52%

Credit Spreads

High Yield SpreadMar 20, 2026
3 bps-0
Investment Grade SpreadMar 20, 2026
1 bps-0
CMBS Spread

Why private lending?

Private real estate lending in Florida offers a significant spread over traditional fixed-income instruments, backed by tangible collateral (first lien mortgage). Unlike the stock market, it generates predictable monthly cash flow and is not subject to daily market volatility.

Outlook for Next Month

Key events and what to watch as a private lending investor.

Next FOMC Meeting

May 5, 2026

43 days remaining

Consumer Sentiment

U. of Michigan Consumer SentimentJan 1, 2026
56.4+3.50

Commodities (Construction)

Lumber PPIFeb 1, 2026
272.0+6.61

What to watch this month

  • Fed rate decision and dot plot evolution
  • Inflation data (CPI and PCE) and their impact on the yield curve
  • Real estate market activity and price trends in Florida
  • Credit spreads as an indicator of market risk appetite

Data retrieved on: March 23, 2026 at 05:23 PM

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data is sourced from official public sources and updated automatically. Dates next to each indicator reflect the latest available observation from each source. Past returns do not guarantee future results.