Monthly Market Report

Private lending market analysis in Florida with real-time economic data

Live data

Market Report

May 2026

Monthly analysis of economic indicators and their impact on the private real estate lending market in Florida.

Last updated: May 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM

Executive Summary

Fed Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Last decision: unchanged

4.33%MayJunJulAug4.22%Sep4.09%Oct3.88%Nov3.72%Dec3.64%JanFebMar3.64%Apr
Next release: May 5 (FOMC · today)

Inflation

CPI 3.3% YoY

Core PCE: 3.2% (referencia Fed)

2.33%Apr2.38%May2.68%Jun2.74%Jul2.94%Aug3.02%Sep2.70%Nov2.65%Dec2.39%Jan2.43%Feb3.29%Mar
Next release: May 12 (BLS CPI · 3 days)

Housing

Hipoteca 30Y: 6.37%

Next release: May 14 (Freddie Mac PMMS · 5 days)

Private Lending

9.0% estimated annual

vs alternatives: CD 3.7% | Treasury 4.4%

Interest Rates and the Fed

FOMC Decision

Unchanged
Last meeting: Mar 17, 2026Fed Funds: 3.50%–3.75%

Statement: Mantuvo tasas en 3.50%-3.75%. SEP proyectó 1 recorte en 2026 y otro en 2027. Miran disintió a favor de recorte. Inflación PCE revisada a 2.7%.

Next meeting:May 5, 2026
Fed Funds RateApr 1, 2026
3.63%
Treasury 2YMay 7, 2026
3.92%+0.05MoM
Treasury 5YMay 7, 2026
4.04%+0.05MoM
Treasury 10YMay 7, 2026
4.41%+0.05MoM
Treasury 30YMay 7, 2026
4.97%+0.03MoM
30Y MortgageMay 7, 2026
6.37%+0.07MoM

Yield Curve (Treasuries)

3.76%4.22%4.67%5.13%3.92%2Y4.04%5Y4.41%10Y4.97%30Y

Inflation and Employment

Key indicators the Fed monitors for monetary policy decisions.

CPI (YoY)Mar 1, 2026
3.29%+0.86MoM
Core CPI (YoY)Mar 1, 2026
2.60%+0.13MoM
PCE (YoY)Mar 1, 2026
3.50%+0.67MoM
Core PCE (YoY)Mar 1, 2026
3.20%+0.20MoM

Employment

Unemployment RateApr 1, 2026
4.30%
Nonfarm PayrollsApr 1, 2026
159K+115.00MoM
Jobless ClaimsMay 2, 2026
200K+10000.00MoM
Core PCE vs Fed Target (2%)3.2% vs 2.0%
0%Target 2%5%

Real Estate Market

Housing market activity indicators in the United States.

Housing StartsMar 1, 2026
2K+146.00MoM

New residential construction projects started. An increase signals developer confidence and housing demand.

Existing Home SalesMar 1, 2026
3980K-150000.00MoM

Sales of previously owned homes (in thousands, annualized). Reflects actual market activity and buyer willingness.

Case-Shiller IndexFeb 1, 2026
327.3+0.95MoM

Home price index across 20 major U.S. cities. Measures property value appreciation or depreciation over time.

Private Lending: The Landscape

Estimated private loan yield vs investment alternatives.

Estimated Yield (Private Lending)

9.0%

Spread over Treasury 10Y: +4.58%

Returns Comparison

Private lending vs traditional instruments (annual yield)

Private Lending (Florida)9.00%
S&P 500 (10Y CAGR)13.62%
Treasury 10Y4.42%
HYSA (Savings Account)3.25%
CD 12 Months3.68%

Why private lending?

Private real estate lending in Florida offers a significant spread over traditional fixed-income instruments, backed by tangible collateral (first lien mortgage). Unlike the stock market, it generates predictable monthly cash flow and is not subject to daily market volatility.

Outlook for Next Month

Key events and what to watch as a private lending investor.

Next FOMC Meeting

May 5, 2026

Consumer Sentiment

U. of Michigan Consumer SentimentMar 1, 2026
53.3-3.30MoM

Commodities (Construction)

Lumber PPIMar 1, 2026
270.5-1.33MoM

What to watch this month

  • Fed rate decision and dot plot evolution
  • Inflation data (CPI and PCE) and their impact on the yield curve
  • Real estate market activity and price trends in Florida
  • Credit spreads as an indicator of market risk appetite

Data retrieved on: May 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data is sourced from official public sources and updated automatically. Dates next to each indicator reflect the latest available observation from each source. Past returns do not guarantee future results.