Monthly Market Report
Private lending market analysis in Florida with real-time economic data
Market Report
September 2026
Monthly analysis of economic indicators and their impact on the private real estate lending market in Florida.
Last updated: September 27, 2026 at 05:47 PM
Executive Summary
Fed Rate
3.75%–4.00%
Last decision: 25bps hike
Inflation
CPI 3.4% YoY
Core PCE: 3.3% (referencia Fed)
Housing
Hipoteca 30Y: 7.03%
Private Lending
9.0% estimated annual
vs alternatives: CD 4.1% | Treasury 4.7%
Interest Rates and the Fed
FOMC Decision
+25bpsStatement: Primera suba de tasas desde 2023: +25 bps al rango 3.75%-4.00%, por voto unánime (12-0). El statement endureció el diagnóstico: gasto doméstico resiliente, productividad fuerte e inversión robusta, y dejó de atribuir la inflación a shocks de oferta. El SEP ubica la mediana de fin de 2026 en 4.1%: 16 de 18 participantes anticipan al menos otra suba este año (cuatro de ellos, dos) y solo dos ninguna. Proyecta PCE de 3.7% para 2026, bajando a 2.3% en 2027.
Key statement phrases
- “raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point”Hawkish
- “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace”Hawkish
- “uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments”Neutral
- “domestic spending has been resilient”Hawkish
- “Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust”Neutral
- “the unemployment rate has changed little”Neutral
- “Inflation remains elevated”Hawkish
- “support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal”Hawkish
- “The Committee will deliver price stability”Hawkish
Yield Curve (Treasuries)
Inflation and Employment
Key indicators the Fed monitors for monetary policy decisions.
Employment
Real Estate Market
Housing market activity indicators in the United States.
New residential construction projects started. An increase signals developer confidence and housing demand.
Sales of previously owned homes (in thousands, annualized). Reflects actual market activity and buyer willingness.
Home price index across 20 major U.S. cities. Measures property value appreciation or depreciation over time.
Private Lending: The Landscape
Estimated private loan yield vs investment alternatives.
Estimated Yield (Private Lending)
9.0%
Returns Comparison
Private lending vs traditional instruments (annual yield)
Why private lending?
Private real estate lending in Florida offers a significant spread over traditional fixed-income instruments, backed by tangible collateral (first lien mortgage). Unlike the stock market, it generates predictable monthly cash flow and is not subject to daily market volatility.
Outlook for Next Month
Key events and what to watch as a private lending investor.
Next FOMC Meeting
30 days remaining
Consumer Sentiment
Commodities (Construction)
What to watch this month
- Fed rate decision and dot plot evolution
- Inflation data (CPI and PCE) and their impact on the yield curve
- Real estate market activity and price trends in Florida
- Credit spreads as an indicator of market risk appetite
Data Sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — Federal Reserve Board
- Aswath Damodaran — NYU Stern School of Business (Equity Risk Premium)
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — U.S. Department of Labor
- U.S. Census Bureau — Housing Starts
Data retrieved on: September 27, 2026 at 05:47 PM
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data is sourced from official public sources and updated automatically. Dates next to each indicator reflect the latest available observation from each source. Past returns do not guarantee future results.