Each month I publish a market analysis combining real-time economic data with its direct impact on Florida's private real estate lending market. This is the June 2026 report.
The Fed: current context
At the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, the FOMC held rates. The Fed Funds target range stays at 3.50%-3.75%.
The next meeting is July 28-29, 2026.
Key rates this month:
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50%–3.75%
- Treasury 10Y: ~4.44%
- 30Y Mortgage: ~6.49%
- Treasury 2Y/5Y/30Y forming a normal curve
Inflation
Inflation data shows:
- Headline CPI (YoY) runs near 3.5%
- Core PCE (YoY) remains around 3.3% — the Fed's preferred metric
- The Fed remains "data dependent" — every inflation print influences cut expectations
For private lending investors, this backdrop keeps long rates elevated and a sustained positive spread over alternatives such as CDs and Treasuries.
Real estate market: Florida with solid fundamentals
Nationally the housing market shows mixed signals:
- Housing Starts moderating with mortgages near 6.49%
- Case-Shiller showing year-over-year appreciation, though decelerating
- Existing Home Sales at low levels due to rate friction
Florida remains the positive outlier: favorable net migration, investment demand from Latin America and Europe, and robust activity in fix-and-flip, bridge loans, and construction.
Private Lending: the current landscape
The estimated yield for private lending in Florida remains around 9% annually, with a significant spread over alternatives:
| Instrument | Yield |
|---|---|
| Private Lending (Florida) | ~9.0% |
| Treasury 10Y | ~4.44% |
| CD 12 Months | ~3.79% |
| HYSA | ~3.25% |
The advantage of private lending isn't just the yield: it's the combination of predictable monthly cash flow + tangible collateral (first lien mortgage) + short terms (~12 months).
Outlook for july
What to watch:
- Next FOMC decision on July 28-29, 2026
- Inflation data — Next CPI and PCE release
- Employment — Nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims
- Credit spreads — High Yield OAS and IG OAS for risk appetite
For live updated data, visit the Monthly Report page where indicators are automatically updated with Federal Reserve (FRED) data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past returns do not guarantee future results.
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